Sains Malaysiana 53(11)(2024): 3791-3801

http://doi.org/10.17576/jsm-2024-5311-21

 

Projection of Older Population in Malaysia by Physical Disability Status

(Unjuran Penduduk Tua di Malaysia Mengikut Status Ketidakupayaan Fizikal)

 

MUHAMMAD AZIZ¹, MOHD AZMI HARON^1,*, ZAILAN SIRI¹ & NORISZURA ISMAIL²

 

¹Institute of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science, Universiti Malaya, 50603 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
²School of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 43600 UKM Bangi, Selangor, Malaysia

 

Received: 28 June 2024/Accepted: 27 September 2024

 

Abstract

In Malaysia, the well-being of individuals with disabilities remains a concern. Addressing the situation of individuals with disabilities and the aging population is critical for the future of Malaysia. This study utilizes a multistate approach to assess the transition probability of disability among older adults in Malaysia. We utilize information from the National Health Morbidity Survey (NHMS) 2019 to parameterize a functional Markov Model and employ a cohort-component projection method for projecting the Malaysian population for 2020–2040 by disability status. The probability of becoming disabled increases with age and is higher for females than males. By 2040, it is anticipated that Malaysia will have nearly 1.7 million disabled older persons experiencing at least two of the six physical limitations delineated in the National Health Morbidity Survey 2019. With advancing age, there is a progressive increase in the likelihood of experiencing disability. The projected 13% of Malaysians aged 65 and above by 2040 emphasizes the necessity for enhanced eldercare social security.

 

Keywords: Disability; long-term care; Malaysian older adults; NHMS 2019; population projection

 

Abstrak

Di Malaysia, kesejahteraan orang kurang upaya (OKU) masih menjadi kebimbangan. Menangani situasi kekurangan upaya dan populasi warga emas adalah kritikal untuk masa depan Malaysia. Kajian ini menggunakan pendekatan berbilang keadaan untuk menilai kebarangkalian peralihan status kekurangan upaya dalam kalangan warga emas di Malaysia. Maklumat daripada Tinjauan Morbiditi Kesihatan Kebangsaan (NHMS) 2019 digunakan untuk memparameterkan Model Markov fungsi dan kaedah unjuran komponen kohort untuk mengunjurkan populasi Malaysia bagi tempoh 2020-2040 mengikut status kekurangan upaya. Kebarangkalian menjadi OKU meningkat dengan usia dan lebih tinggi bagi wanita berbanding lelaki. Menjelang 2040, Malaysia dijangkakan akan mempunyai hampir 1.7 juta warga emas OKU yang mengalami sekurang-kurangnya dua daripada enam batasan fizikal yang digariskan dalam Tinjauan Morbiditi Kesihatan Kebangsaan 2019. Dengan pertambahan usia, kebarangkalian mengalami kekurangan upaya akan meningkat secara progresif. Unjuran 13% rakyat Malaysia berumur 65 tahun ke atas menjelang 2040 menekankan keperluan untuk jaminan sosial penjagaan warga emas yang lebih baik.

 

Kata kunci: Jagaan jangka panjang; kekurangan upaya; NHMS 2019; orang tua Malaysia; unjuran populasi

 

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*Corresponding author; email: azmiharon@um.edu.my